农机产品拥有量的非线性特性研究
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Study on Nonlinear Property of Agricultural Machinery Products Possessions
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    摘要:

    农机产品的社会拥有量预测是农机产品市场预测的基础。该文建立了描述农机产品社会拥有量的演化方程,并指出该方程具有非线性混沌特性。在简要介绍描述混沌程度的典型参数关联维数和柯尔莫哥夫熵的定义的基础上,计算了基于时间序列的中国农机产品拥有量(以大中型拖拉机和联合收割机为例)的关联维数和柯尔莫哥夫熵,结果表明中国农机市场发展确实存在混沌。最后指出农机产品拥有量长期预测的困难,建议改进传统的预测方法。

    Abstract:

    The prediction of social possessions of agricultural machinery products is the base for that of the markets. An equation for describing the evolution of agricultural machinery products possessions was established and then its nonlinear chaos property with the theory of stability was pointed out. After simply introducing the definitions oftypical parameters to describe the level of chaos,the values of correlation dimension and saturation embedded dimension of the agricultural machinery possessions based on time series in China were calculated. The results showed that chaos truely exists in the agricultural machinery products possessions. Factors of influencing every agricultural machinery product social possession are many and different. It is difficult to make its longterm precise prediction and it is advised to improve the traditional prediction methods.

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陈丽能,谢永良,陈秉钧.农机产品拥有量的非线性特性研究[J].农业工程学报,1999,15(2):96-102.

Chen Lineng, Xie Yongliang, Chen Bingjun. Study on Nonlinear Property of Agricultural Machinery Products Possessions[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),1999,15(2):96-102.

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  • 收稿日期:1998-11-20
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