1961-2010年陕甘宁农区干旱变化规律及其对小麦潜在产量的影响
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国家国际科技合作专项(2013DFG21010-2)


Change of drought and its impact on potential yield of wheat in agricultural region of Shan-Gan-Ning region in 1961-2010
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    摘要:

    干旱作为一种典型的气象灾害事件,对人类生产生活带来了极大影响。近几十年来,随着气候变化不断加剧,干旱的变化规律及对作物生长影响的变化趋势已成为气候变化影响研究的重要组成部分。该文选择中国陕甘宁农区为研究区,利用帕默尔干旱指数(palmer drought severity index, PDSI)分析了1961-2010年干旱强度及频率的变化趋势,并研究了不同月份干旱的变化趋势;在此基础上,依托EPIC(environmental policy integrated climate)模型分别模拟了冬小麦、春小麦在雨养和充足灌溉条件下的作物生长过程,通过两种模拟情景的差异研究降水亏缺所导致干旱对作物潜在产量影响的变化趋势。研究发现:1961-2010年,中国陕甘宁农区年均PDSI呈现明显的下降趋势,并且年内重度干旱月份数(PDSI

    Abstract:

    Abstract: As a typical meteorological disaster, drought has made serious impacts on human being. Especially during the recent decades, the frequency of drought has increased along with climate change. Researches on the change in the drought occurrence and its impacts will become more important to reduce the negative impacts of climate change. In this study, the agricultural region of Shan-Gan-Ning region, which was located in the eastern part of the Northwestern China and belonged to arid and semi-arid region, was chosen as the study area due to its vulnerability to climate change. Spring wheat and winter wheat were 2 main crops in this region and selected as the research crops. The trends in agricultural drought and its impact of crop yield were analyzed by drought index and crop growth simulation. Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), was used to analyze the change of agricultural drought in different periods and regions. It was based on the water balance in soil and considered the previous soil moisture, which had been widely used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of agricultural drought. The trends of precipitation, temperature and PDSI in different months from 1961 to 2010 were investigated. Then the impact of drought on crop growth of wheat was analyzed by the crop growth simulation. Crop growth model, which was built based on the crop growth mechanism, could simulate the change of soil water deficit and crop growth in a long period. It had become an important method to the research on the impact of climate change on the crop yield. The crop growth under rainfed and efficient irrigation scenarios was simulated by the environmental policy integrated climate (EPIC) model. The crop yield under the efficient irrigation scenario could eliminate the negative impact of water deficit and reflect the impact of local condition on crop growth such as solar radiation and temperature. The rainfed condition showed the synthesized effect of local condition. The crop yield gap between those 2 scenarios was recognized as the impact of water deficit by lower precipitation. Over the past 50 years, it showed a significant increasing trend in temperature in this region, especially in January and February. There were significant decreasing trend in the precipitation in April, July and September. Increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation would result in more serious water deficit condition. PDSI had a significant decreasing trend in the eastern part of Northwest China in 1961-2010. The number of months with severe drought (PDSI was less than -3.0) showed a significant increasing trend. Both of them indicated that drought had become more severe and more frequent. Especially in April, July and September, PDSI was much less than before because of the decreasing trend of precipitation in these months. Since many important crop growth stages were in those months, drought during this period would have more serious impact on the crop yield. Those stations that were distributed in the central part of this region had a larger negative trend in PDSI, because of the more reduction in precipitation. Based on the crop growth simulation, almost all the stations had an increasing trend on crop yield reduction caused by water deficit over the past 50 years. The situations in the central part of study area, especially for the northwestern stations in winter wheat growth region, had larger change range in the yield reduction. All of those stations had more serious water deficit condition because of the decreasing trend in precipitation, especially in April, which was jointing and heading stage and key to crop growth. The PDSI in those stations also had decreasing trend. The central parts of the study region should be more concerned by the agriculture and water resource managers, especially in April, July and September.

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刘明,李素菊,武建军,和海霞,黄河,吕爱锋.1961-2010年陕甘宁农区干旱变化规律及其对小麦潜在产量的影响[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(18):147-154. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2015.18.021

Liu Ming, Li Suju, Wu Jianjun, He Haixia, Huang He, Lü Aifeng. Change of drought and its impact on potential yield of wheat in agricultural region of Shan-Gan-Ning region in 1961-2010[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2015,31(18):147-154. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2015.18.021

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  • 收稿日期:2015-05-26
  • 最后修改日期:2015-08-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-09-17
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