全球主要粮食作物产量变化及其气象灾害风险评估
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公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106030);财政部“国内外作物产量气象预报专项”和“气候变化对农业的影响”项目


Changes in global main crop yields and its meteorological risk assessment
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    摘要:

    随着粮食全球化趋势和中国粮食安全战略调整,准确了解中国和国外主要粮食作物生产状况、产量变化及其气象灾害风险水平,对于气候变化背景下保障中国粮食安全和国家“农业走出去”战略实施具有重要意义。该文以全球主要粮食生产国粮食产量资料为基本资料,通过作物气象产量分离对全球主要粮食作物的产量变化进行了研究;用新构建的减产概率系数pc和平均减产率d、减产率变异系数v定义了综合气象灾害风险指数Pw,根据Pw≤2.0、2.0<Pw≤4.0和Pw>4.0将全球粮食主产区划分为气象灾害低风险区、中风险区和高风险区。研究结果显示,法国、德国和中国的小麦、美国、巴西、阿根廷的玉米和大豆、中国和越南的水稻产量水平在近50多年提升迅速,但区域差异明显。加拿大和澳大利亚小麦、美国玉米、巴西和阿根廷大豆的Pw超过4.0,为气象灾害高风险区;俄罗斯和中国小麦、巴西和阿根廷玉米、美国和中国大豆、印度水稻的Pw介于2.0和4.0,为中风险区;美国、德国、法国和印度小麦、中国玉米、中国、越南和泰国水稻的Pw小于2.0,为低风险区。文中方法能够直观评估全球粮食产区粮食生产水平和综合气象灾害风险,对宏观了解和认识国内外粮食生产状况具有借鉴意义。

    Abstract:

    Crop yield changes regularly along with technological progress and climate change.Technological progress usually leads to the increase of crop yield, while climate fluctuations especially meteorological disasters often result in crop loss.In this paper, the long time-sequence crop yield was decomposed into the trend yield and the meteorological yield, which were respectively considered as the results of agricultural technology development and climate fluctuation.The trend yield could indicate the speed of technological progress and the potentiality of the crop output in a specific time interval.Meanwhile the meteorological yield could manifest the yield fluctuation that was resulted from the meteorological disasters, which could then be used to assess the potential risk of crop loss in a specific region.The results of yield decomposition of wheat, corn, soybean and paddy rice in main production countries of the world suggested that the yields increased rapidly in last 50 years for soybean and corn in the United States of America, Brazil and Argentina, for wheat in France, Germany and China, and for rice in China and Vietnam.Wheat yields of some European countries such as France and Germany, and rice yields of some Asian countries such as China and Thailand, had reached a peak and then decreased in recent years.As for as the meteorological risk assessment, besides crop yield reduction rate and its annual variation coefficient that were commonly used in studies, a new indicator of risk probability coefficient was built which was calculated based on the risk probability distribution function of crop loss using a weighted method.The risk probability distribution function was firstly obtained by a statistical method based on the relative meteorological yield series of a country.Standard normal transformation was then carried out, and the risk probability distribution could be divided into different intervals.The probability of each interval was assigned with different weight that increased progressively from low reduction rate to high reduction rate.The obtained integrated risk index(Pw) could indicate the risk degree of different crops in different regions.Three risk degrees i.e.low, moderate and high risk degree were divided, which were Pw≤2.0, 2.0<Pw≤4.0 and Pw>4.0, respectively.The results suggested that the meteorological risks of wheat in Canada and Australia, corn in America, and soybean in Brazil and Argentina were high and the Pw was more than 4.0.The risks of wheat in Russia and China, corn in Brazil and Argentina, soybean in America and China, and rice in India were moderate.The Pw values of wheat in America, Germany, France and India, corn in China, and rice in China, Vietnam and Thailand were less than 2.0, which meant their meteorological risks were low.The method in this paper can be helpful to evaluate the change trend of crop yield and assess the meteorological risk of agricultural production at global scale.

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钱永兰,毛留喜,周广胜.全球主要粮食作物产量变化及其气象灾害风险评估[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(1):226-235. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2016.01.032

Qian Yonglan, Mao Liuxi, Zhou Guangsheng. Changes in global main crop yields and its meteorological risk assessment[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2016,32(1):226-235. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2016.01.032

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  • 收稿日期:2015-07-23
  • 最后修改日期:2015-11-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-12-30
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