近30 a新疆月NDVI动态变化及其驱动因子分析
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(41001055);中国环境科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项资助项目(2009KYYW10,2012-YSKY-13)资助


Analysis on spatio-temporal trends and drivers in monthly NDVI during recent decades in Xinjiang, China based two datasets
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    摘要:

    不同生长阶段的植被对水热条件的需求、对气候变化的敏感性可能不同。监测不同月份植被动态变化及其对气候变化的响应,对于深入理解植被与气候的关系具有重要意义。基于MODIS NDVI数据集拓展的AVHRR GIMMS NDVI时间序列,该文研究了近30 a新疆生长季各月植被生长的动态变化,分析了气候变化和人类活动的可能影响。结果表明,已有研究指出的1982-2006年的植被生长显著增加(P<0.05)在后续几个时段仍然持续,但5-10月区域平均NDVI增加量随时段长度的延长而显著减少(P<0.05),除11月外,其他月份多存在1998年或1997年前后,NDVI由增加到减少的逆转现象。但在像元尺度,显著增加和显著减少的区域多随时段延长呈极显著增加趋势(P<0.01),尤其是显著减少区域在各月中均快速增加,导致区域尺度NDVI增加趋势的放缓。各月份NDVI对气候变化的响应不同:生长季开始的3-6月和生长季结束的9-11月NDVI对气温、蒸散发等与热量有关的因子变化更敏感,而7-8月则与降水量、湿润指数等水分因子的相关性更强。3-5月农田NDVI的显著减少除气候因素外,种植结构和灌溉方式的改变也是重要原因。时段长度不同得出的结果有所差异,延长时段长度、注重变化过程分析是未来植被动态监测的重要研究内容。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the terrestrial carbon balance and the climate system, and also overwhelmingly dominants the provisioning of ecosystem services. However, changes occurred on small temporal scales and the persistency or robustness of the changes was often not fully understood. Documentation of changes in vegetation over the most recent years is limited. These documented changes are especially important for policy development and ecosystem conservation and recovery. In this study, with GIMMS NDVI (1982-2006) and MODIS NDVI (2000-2012) datasets in Xinjiang, the spatio-temporal patterns of changes in monthly NDVI and their linkage with change in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, humidity index and human activity were analyzed from March to November at regional and pixel scales. To detect the trend of NDVI during a given period, a least -squares linear regression was applied. To further explore the climatic factors driving NDVI change, interannual correlations between NDVI and climatic variables were calculated using Pearson correlation analysis. To analyze the temporal patterns and dynamic process, we estimated trends of NDVI and the correlation between NDVI and climatic factors over progressively longer periods of 25 to 31 years since 1982 and calculated the percentage of the area that showed a positive or negative trend in the seven nested time series. The monthly NDVI was significantly increased in all months besides November, but there were two distinct periods with opposite trends in most of these months, especially in June to September, from which it increased before 1998 or 1997 or decreased after 1998 or 1997. The trend of reversal of NDVI change also led to that the rate of NDVI increase was notably slowed or stopped as the NDVI record grew in an incremental length from 1982-2006, 1982-2007, ..., to 1982-2012 for March-October. At pixel scale, the areas with significantly change of NDVI in size highly significantly (P<0.01) increased during seven periods in most months, especially for those with a significant (P<0.05) decrease trend. The rate of increase in size of areas with significant decreasing NDVI was larger than that with significant increasing NDVI in all nine months. Consequently, this caused stall or slow increase of regional scale NDVI. The response of vegetation NDVI to climate change for different months was different. The response of NDVI in March-June and September-November was more sensitive to thermal indicator, such as temperature and evapotranspiration. The correlation between NDVI and precipitation and humidity index was stronger in July-August, and areas with significant (P<0.05) correlation were larger. Moreover, the effects of spring temperature on vegetation growth were more substantial at high elevations, such as Altai Mountains, Tianshan Mountains, than that at low elevation. In addition, the impact of climate on vegetation became more significant over a longer time scale. Meanwhile, change in NDVI was significantly (P<0.05) affected by human activities. The change of planting structure and farming methods were also the driving factors. The promotion of agricultural production such as the rapid increase in the proportion of cotton cultivation and the change from flood to drip irrigation may reduce March-May NDVI in some farmland areas. The difference in study time spanning generates different results. Trend analysis during the multiple nested time series may contribute to a better and thorough understanding of NDVI dynamic. Extending the time series as much as possible and focusing on the course of change are particularly important in studies that monitor vegetation dynamics and its relationship with climate change.

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杜加强,赵晨曦,贾尔恒·阿哈提,房世峰,香宝,阴俊齐,何萍,袁新杰,方广玲,舒俭民.近30 a新疆月NDVI动态变化及其驱动因子分析[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(5):172-181. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2016.05.024

Du Jiaqiang, Zhao Chenxi, Jiaerheng Ahati, Fang Shifeng, Xiang Bao, Yin Junqi, He Ping, Yuan Xinjie, Fang Guangling, Shu Jianmin. Analysis on spatio-temporal trends and drivers in monthly NDVI during recent decades in Xinjiang, China based two datasets[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2016,32(5):172-181. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2016.05.024

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  • 收稿日期:2015-07-07
  • 最后修改日期:2015-12-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-01-29
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