2014-2018年中国田间秸秆焚烧火点的时空变化
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国家自然科学基金项目(41801065)


Spatio-temporal change of straw burning fire points in field of China from 2014 to 2018
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    摘要:

    从长时间序列、全国尺度剖析田间秸秆露天焚烧现象,对科学疏导秸秆露天焚烧和提高行政监管效率具有重要实践意义。基于2014-2018年的中国区域内Satsee-Fire火点数据,经过数据转换、提取、清洗等处理流程后,本研究构建了2014-2018年中国秸秆露天焚烧火点数据集,并进一步采用重心转移模型、空间自相关模型和k均值聚类模型从不同时空尺度探索了近五年中国田间秸秆露天焚烧火点的时空分布格局及其演变特征。结果表明:中国秸秆露天禁烧政策成效显著,研究时段内秸秆火点数量呈现显著的逐年单调递减态势,年均降低率达22.43%;月际间秸秆火点集中在2-4月、10-11月,合计占全年比重的85.71%;空间上集聚在东北、华北和华中地区,黑吉辽地区占比高达56.37%,如以胡焕庸线为界限,则东南半壁和西南半壁分别占全部火点的78.73%、21.27%。年际间秸秆火点重心主要位于辽宁-河北一带,受东北地区秸秆火点逐年减少影响,总体呈现向西南方向迁移的发展特征;月际间秸秆火点重心呈明显的回字形迁移轨迹。秸秆火点的全局空间自相关介于0.33~0.49,总体在较低水平,并呈现逐年降低态势,在空间上的集聚现象在不断分化,火点的离散分布态势愈加明显,以往高密度秸秆火点的县域密集分布现象在空间不断离散。不同省份的秸秆焚烧现象呈现出“秋冬季主导型”、“春季主导型”和“秋季主导型”3种聚类类型,不同地区的秸秆焚烧规律与其种植制度、作物类型和物候节律具有密切关系。在对秸秆焚烧现象进行管控和疏导时,应充分考虑当地物候节律,以降低行政成本和提高行政效率。

    Abstract:

    Abstract:Understanding the changes in field straw-burning at national scale over a comparatively long period is essential to improving straw management and helping its administrative supervision. Using the Stasee-Fire data from 2014 to 2018 in China, we constructed a dataset of field straw-burning in China after data conversion, extraction, cleaning and other processing. We then analyzed its spatiotemporal changes at different scales over the past five years using the central gravity-moving model, spatial autocorrelation model and the K-mean clustering model. The results show that the mandate of banning field straw-burning has achieved its objectives, and that the number of straw-burning had fallen at an average annual rate of 22.43%. The monthly straw-burning in February-April and October-November accounted for 85.71% of the annual burning. Most of straw-burning were in northeast, the north plain and Heilongjiang, with 56.31% of the burnings occurring in Liaoning and Jilin provinces. Taking the Hu-Huanyong line as a boundary line, the straw-burning in the regions to the southeast and southwest of the line was 78.73 : 21.27. It was found from the central gravity-moving model that the gravitational center of the straw-burning was located in Liaoning and Hebei, with a tendency of shifting to southwest due to the decline in straw-burning in northeast China. The center of the monthly straw-burning showed a noticeable return-glyph trajectory. We found that the spatial autocorrelation of the straw-burning was between 0.33 and 0.49 at national scale but has been falling, and that the straw-burning was no longer concentrated in some regions and it instead occurred sparsely across the country. At provincial scale, straw-burning can be classified as autumn - winter, spring, and autumn-burning type, with specific types in each area depending on its cultivation, crop varieties and climate. Therefore, improving management of straw-burning should take climate change and crop varieties into account.

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张景源,杨绪红,涂心萌,宁可心,栾心晨.2014-2018年中国田间秸秆焚烧火点的时空变化[J].农业工程学报,2019,35(19):191-199. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2019.19.023

Zhang Jingyuan, Yang Xuhong, Tu Xinmeng, Ning Kexin, Luan Xinchen. Spatio-temporal change of straw burning fire points in field of China from 2014 to 2018[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2019,35(19):191-199. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2019.19.023

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  • 收稿日期:2019-05-12
  • 最后修改日期:2019-06-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-10-23
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