Abstract:The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of future potential evapotranspiration (ET0) can provide basic data support for agricultural water demand prediction, irrigation management and rational response to climate change. This paper has made the temporal and spatial prediction based on the various parameters, including the average temperature, the maximum temperature, the minimum temperature, total solar radiation, relative humidity and near-surface wind speed, where the 92 grid points were obtained in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1960-2016. The feasibility of climate models was verified using the principle of probability distribution optimization. Using the global climate model of GFDL-ESM2M that provided by the United States (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL), the SS(Skill Score) value of annual mean temperature could reach 0.86, indicating good applicability for the simulation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The prediction period was set from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2050, and the climate scenarios were selected RCP(representative concentration pathways)2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, representing low, medium and high RCP cases. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the future daily ET0 and its correlation with climate elements were analyzed using the Penman-Monteith formula based on the measured 92 grid points in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The simulated results found that the future ET0 showed an increasing trend during this period. The ET0 in the RCP8.5 scenario rose the fastest, with the increment increasing over time, especially in the 2040 period. The summer ET0 grew the fastest, followed by spring, autumn and winter, meaning that the distribution difference of the seasonal ET0 will dominate in the future. This phenomenon may cause more severe seasonal droughts. The spatial distribution of ET0 gradually decreased from southwest to northeast, specifically indicating that Shijiazhuang in the southern plain area had the largest ET0 (1 207-1 262 mm), while Zhangjiakou and Chengde in the northwest mountainous area had the lowest ET0 (938-974 mm). There was a high growth rate of ET0 in the central region, as decreasing from central region to north and south. The average temperature in each climate scenario increased year by year, the wind speed and total solar radiation increased slightly, while the relative humidity decreased. The correlation between ET0 and the total solar radiation was the most obvious, followed by the highest temperature, all showing an increasing trend from northwest to southeast. The ET0 had negatively correlation with the relative humidity, but the absolute value of its correlation coefficient increased from northeast to southwest. There was a relatively slight correlation between ET0 and the wind speed. The correlation coefficient between ET0 and the total solar radiation showed a declining trend from RCP2.6-RCP8.5 with the increase of the emission concentration, possibly resulting from the large amount of energy consumption. The energy consumption will lead to the increase of the aerosol content in the air and the increase of haze days, leading to the decrease of sunshine hours, and the reduction of the total solar radiation. The negative effect of the reduce in the sunshine hours may exceed the positive effect of the temperature rising. It is possible that the future ET0 will continue to rise due to the radiation and temperature. The ET0 increase in the future can deteriorate the water shortages and even severe droughts in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2021 to 2050.