1978—2017年中国农业污染物影子价格及污染成本测算
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国家自然科学基金重点项目 (41931293);国家自然科学基 金青年项目(41601599)


Shadow prices and pollution costs of agricultural pollutants in China from 1978 to 2017
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    摘要:

    农业污染物影子价格及污染成本估算是制定农业污染减排政策的基础性工作。该研究以1978—2017年中国农 业部门的省级面板数据为研究单元,利用二次型方向性距离函数和收益函数的对偶关系估算了农业污染物的影子价格, 并测算了农业生产的污染成本。研究发现:1978—2017 年,中国农业污染物总氮 (TN)、总磷 (TP) 和化学需氧量 (COD) 的影子价格总体呈下降趋势,分别下降了26.8%、35.9%、59.7%,并大致经历了自由发展、改革推动、市场调 控与政策激励4个阶段。由于受自然资源条件与社会经济条件的影响,农业污染物的影子价格存在明显的区域差异,表 现为东北地区TN的影子价格最低,西南地区TN和TP的影子价格最高而COD的影子价格最低,华东地区TP的影子价 格最低而COD的影子价格最高。中国农业生产年均污染成本为760.6亿元,占全国年均农业总产值的10.8%,尤其是宁 夏、贵州、河北、山东的污染成本占各省年均农业总产值的比例高于14%,表明农业污染成本巨大。中国农业污染物影 子价格的长期演变趋势及其污染成本分析表明,农业政策的制定应避免掉入“逐利政策”陷阱,并积极转变农业生产方 式与探索农业管理新模式。

    Abstract:

    Abstract:There has a drastic change in structures of agricultural production and rural economy in China over the recent years. Pollution induced by agrochemical applications, livestock and poultry breeding, straw incineration in agricultural production has been increasing, and agricultural pollution has overtaken industrial pollution becoming the main water pollution source in China. However, efforts to ameliorate these pollutions are difficult to implement because of a lack of understanding of their associated costs. This is one reason why agricultural pollution control is still regulation-based rather than market-based as has been widely used in controlling industrial pollution. Shadow price of agricultural pollutant is a key to help policy-make strategies to remediate agricultural pollutants. The purpose of this paper is to address this issue by taking agricultural data measured from 1978 to 2017 at provincial scale in China as an example. We estimated the quadratic directional distance function, revenue function and the costs of pollution in agricultural production. The results showed that the shadow prices of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and COD had reduced by 26.8%, 35.9% and 59.7%, respectively, from 1978 to 2017, having undergone through free development stage, reform promotion stage, market regulation stage and policy incentive stage. Because of the difference in natural and socio-economic conditions between the provinces, there was a noticeable spatial variation in shadow prices of agricultural pollutants in them. In the northwest China, the shadow price of TN was the lowest, while in the southwest China, the shadow price of TN and TP was the highest and the price of COD was the lowest. In east China the shadow price of TP was the lowest and the price of COD was the highest. The average annual costs of pollution in agricultural production was 76.06 billion Yuan per year, accounting for 10.8% of the value of the total agricultural production. In particular, the costs of pollution in Ningxia, Guizhou, Hebei, and Shandong accounted for more than 14% of the value of their total annual agricultural production. The long-term change in shadow price of agricultural pollutants and the costs of agricultural pollution in China indicated that agricultural production was complex and affected by individual and combined natural, social-economic and political factors. Agricultural policies should be made based on the requirement of the "two-oriented agriculture" development by reforming agricultural supply structure to improve quality and efficiency of the agricultural supply to avoid falling into the "profit pursuing policy" trap. Transformation of agricultural production should focus on improving land productivity and resource and labor use efficiency, along with reducing dependence on petrochemicals and remediating non-point agricultural pollutant. It also needs to consider resource conservation and environmental protection by developing circular, and ecological-friendly intensive agriculture.

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邹利林,刘彦随,王永生.1978—2017年中国农业污染物影子价格及污染成本测算[J].农业工程学报,2020,36(6):223-230. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2020.06.026

Zou Lilin, Liu Yansui, Wan Yongsheng. Shadow prices and pollution costs of agricultural pollutants in China from 1978 to 2017[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2020,36(6):223-230. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2020.06.026

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  • 收稿日期:2019-11-11
  • 最后修改日期:2020-03-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-04-02
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