北方苹果干旱触发判识方法
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国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502801;2019YFD1002203);中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金(2019KJ008)


Method for trigger identification of apple drought in northern China
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    摘要:

    基于小样本历史灾害数据和长序列气象、林果生长数据的林果灾害判识,对目前历史灾害数据匮乏的林果等经济作物气象灾害研究具有重要意义。该研究以中国陕西省富士系苹果干旱灾害为例,利用气象资料、苹果干旱灾情史料和富士系苹果发育期资料,充分考虑苹果不同发育阶段的水分需求和降水供给情况,以及前期水分盈亏状况对当前发育阶段苹果生长的影响,在水分盈亏指数计算的基础上,构建苹果干旱指数。通过概率分析、K-Means聚类、欧式距离等方法,厘定陕西省富士系苹果的干旱触发阈值。采用致灾因子序列对比分析、预留样本验证相结合的方法,验证苹果干旱触发阈值有效性。结果表明:1)苹果干旱触发阈值分别为:苹果果树萌动-萌芽期0.87,萌芽-盛花期0.84,盛花-成熟期0.73;2)基于阈值提取的苹果干旱年份的干旱指数序列与历史灾害样本干旱指数序列具有同一性;预留独立样本指标判识准确率为85.58%;典型站点长时间序列检验判识结果准确率为80.95%。研究结果可为林果灾害指标研究提供技术支撑。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Historical disaster documents can greatly contribute to machine learning from disaster experiences, particularly in understanding the interaction mechanism of regional disaster systems. Historical, agricultural, and meteorological disaster characteristics can be explored by the representation and reanalysis of disaster processes and events, integrating meteorological data and agricultural information. However, compared with field crops, the historical disaster records of cash crops, such as forests and fruits, are relatively scarce, which can make the disaster representation and reanalysis with low accuracy. Therefore, it is of great merit to develop a method for identifying forest and fruit disasters, based on the limited historical disaster data, as well as long series meteorological and fruit growth data, for the cash crop meteorological disasters researches which are lack of historical disaster records. In this study, taking the drought disaster of Fuji Apple in Shaanxi Province as an example, the meteorological data, historical drought disaster, and phenological data were integrated to identify the trigger threshold of apple drought. According to the phenological data of apple collected in this study, tree growth stages, that is, tree germinating to flower budding, flower budding to full bloom, and full bloom to mature, were analyzed as target growth stages for apple. Referring to the drought index construction method for crops, such as wheat and corn, pre- and current water demand and precipitation supply were fully considered in the construction of the apple Drought Index (DI). The probability analysis, K-means clustering, and Euclidean distance were used to comprehensively analyze the distribution and classification characteristics of DI between 35 stations from 1981 to 2018 and historical disaster samples. According to the Euclidean distance between the DI in historical disaster sample and the center point of the cluster sample, the drought trigger threshold of Fuji Apple in tree germinating to flower budding, flower budding to full bloom and full bloom to mature were identified by the corresponding minimum Euclidean distance. Afterwards, the trigger threshold was verified by comparing the sequence of disaster-causing factors and reserving samples. The results showed that: 1) The trigger thresholds of apple drought in tree germinating to flower budding, flower budding to full bloom and full bloom to mature were 0.87, 0.84, and 0.73, respectively. 2) The DI sequences that extracted based on the threshold value in tree germinating to flower budding, flower budding to full bloom and full bloom to mature stages were detected the same characters with that in historical disaster samples. The apple drought data that identified by the calculated of DI and trigger threshold were generally consistent with that disaster records in historical documents, with 85.58% of trigger threshold-based results completely consistent with historical records. The identification coincidence rate was 80.95% in the long-time series validation for typical sites. Generally, the trigger threshold of apple drought can provide a sound technical support for apple drought monitoring, early warning, and assessment in Northern China. The agrometeorological disaster trigger identification method based on small samples of historical disaster data can also offer a paradigm in the current research on the meteorological disasters of cash crops with insufficient historical disaster data.

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杨建莹,霍治国,徐建文,王培娟,邬定荣,毛红丹,孔瑞.北方苹果干旱触发判识方法[J].农业工程学报,2020,36(18):99-108. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2020.18.013

Yang Jianying, Huo Zhiguo, Xu Jianwen, Wang Peijuan, Wu Dingrong, Mao Hongdan, Kong Rui. Method for trigger identification of apple drought in northern China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2020,36(18):99-108. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2020.18.013

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  • 收稿日期:2020-06-11
  • 最后修改日期:2020-08-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-10-09
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