小时和日步长热时对夏玉米生育期模拟的影响
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基金项目:国家重点研发项目(2016YFD0300201);中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室项目(AMF201805)


Comparison of the simulation effects of summer maize phenology derived from hourly and daily time step thermal units
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    摘要:

    热时是模拟和预测作物生育期的重要参数,而小时步长热时与日步长热时之间存在差异。该研究利用郑州农业气象试验站2005-2018年逐小时气温数据和同期夏玉米生育期观测资料,南阳、获嘉和黄泛区农场2012-2013年玉米分期播种生育期资料和逐时气温数据,选择线性模型、Logistic模型和Wang-Engel(WE)模型3种作物生育速率温度响应模型,结合玉米三基点温度,分别计算了各模型中夏玉米出苗、拔节、开花和成熟期的小时步长热时和日步长热时的累积值,比较这3种模型的小时步长热时与日步长热时对玉米生育期的模拟效果。结果表明:在夏玉米生长期内,3个温度模型的逐日热时整体上表现为日步长热时大于小时步长热时,气温日变化是造成这种差异的直接原因。日平均气温达到作物生长最适温度附近时,小时步长热时与日步长热时的日差异最大值可达9.7 ℃·d(线性)、9.1 ℃·d(Logistic)和7.4 ℃·d(WE)。线性模型在拔节期、开花期的日步长热时累积比小时步长热时显著偏多(P<0.05),Logistic模型在拔节、开花和成熟期的日步长热时累积也比小时步长热时显著偏多(P<0.05),而WE模型在各生育期均无显著性差异。在同一温度模型条件下,日步长热时与小时步长热时的生育期模拟差异不大于1 d,生育期时长模拟差异不大于2 d。小时步长热时没有显著提高夏玉米生育期模拟精度。

    Abstract:

    Thermal-unit accumulation is commonly used to simulate crop phenology, because the crop growth rate depends mainly on the temperature in farmland. However, there is a great difference of thermal units that are derived from hourly and daily temperature, due to the diurnal variation of temperature. Therefore, this study aims to compare the simulation effects of two thermal units on crop phenology. The phenological data of summer maize and hourly temperature at four sites were collected from Zhengzhou, Nanyang, Huojia, and Huangfanqu Farm. The field experimental data in Zhengzhou ranged from 2005 to 2018, while the data at other sites was accessible for a period from 2012 to 2013. Three models of crop phenological rate in response to temperature were selected to simulate summer maize phenology, including linear, logistic, and Wang-Engel (WE) model. Subsequently, three cardinal temperatures of summer maize (the base, optimum, and the maximum temperature), the accumulations of the Hourly Thermal Units (HTU) , and Daily Thermal Units (DTU) were calculated in different phenological stages. The effects of two thermal units on summer maize phenology were compared for different models and phenological stages, including emergency, jointing, flowering, and maturity stage. Specifically, the model performance was evaluated using statistical indicators, such as variable coefficient, the difference between maximum and minimum (Rg), absolute root mean squared error (RMSE), normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE), and absolute bias (ABS) between simulated and measured values. The statistical indicators in phenological stages were also compared in the daily and hourly thermal units. The results showed that the DTU of the three models were all greater than HTU during the growing stage of summer maize, due directly to the diurnal variation of temperature. The maximum daily difference between DTU and HTU reached 9.7℃•d (Linear model), 9.1℃• d (Logistic model), and 7.4℃•d (WE model), respectively, when the daily average temperature was close to the optimum temperature for crop growth. Moreover, the correlation between HTU and DTU was the strongest in WE model (R2 = 0.927), followed by the logistic model (R 2 = 0.816), and the linear model (R2 = 0.738). The mean variable coefficient of HTU accumulation was 0.4%, smaller than those of DTU accumulation over the whole phenological period, indicating that HTU had higher stability than DTU. Furthermore, the DTU accumulation in the linear model was significantly greater (P<0.05) than HTU accumulation at jointing and flowing stages, while the DTU accumulation in the Logistic model was also greater (P<0.05) than HTU accumulation at jointing, flowing, and maturity stages. Nevertheless, there was no significant difference between DTU and HTU accumulation at each phenological stage in the WE model. The simulation of both DTU and HTU showed higher accuracy in the WE model than that in the Logistic model, followed by the linear model at phenological stages and intervals. The accuracies of three temperature models varied in the crop phenology with the root mean square error of 3.7 d, 3.9 d, and 5.1 d, and the NRMSE of 1.66%, 1.77% and 2.50% in the WE, Logistic and Linear models, respectively. In the term of accuracy differences at phenological intervals, the RMSE was 3.1, 3.3, and 3.9 d, and the normalized the root mean square error was 14.34%, 14.66%, and 17.74% in the WE, Logistic and Linear models, respectively. With the same temperature model, the differences between DTU and HTU accumulation were no more than 1d at a phenological stage, and 2 d in the phenological interval. The data demonstrated that there was little difference in thermal unit accumulation derived from hourly temperature and daily temperature for summer maize. Namely, there was no significant improvement in simulation accuracy of phenological stages with shorter time steps in HTU.

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引用本文

余卫东,冯利平.小时和日步长热时对夏玉米生育期模拟的影响[J].农业工程学报,2021,37(7):131-139. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2021.07.016

Yu Weidong, Feng Liping. Comparison of the simulation effects of summer maize phenology derived from hourly and daily time step thermal units[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2021,37(7):131-139. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2021.07.016

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  • 收稿日期:2020-12-14
  • 最后修改日期:2021-03-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-05-11
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