考虑粮食安全和耕地质量的县域基本农田空间布局优化
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国家社科基金重大招标项目(17ZDA076);国家社科基金重点项目(20AGL024)


Spatial layout optimization of basic farmland considering food security and cultivated land quality at county scale
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    摘要:

    基于粮食安全优化区域耕地空间布局,以期为粮食安全和耕地保护提供参考。该研究以河南省柘城县为例,从人口发展的角度出发,建立灰色-BP网络组合模型,预测1999-2025年柘城县人口数量以及耕地需求量;其次,从六种粮食消费途径采用折算法计算粮食需求量与粮食安全系数;随后,根据基本农田空间布局优化的要求,从生产条件、区位条件、景观条件以及政策条件4个方面构建耕地质量评价体系,并使用加权指数和法计算耕地综合质量分;最后,根据粮食安全对耕地数量的要求以及质量评价结果,优化柘城县基本农田空间布局。结果表明:1)柘城县在1990-2005年属于粮食紧张阶段,2005-2019年属于粮食盈余阶段,虽整体上实现粮食安全,但从粮食消费结构上看依然存在"隐性饥饿"风险;2)柘城县耕地综合质量分在29.57~92.87之间,均值为59.53,综合质量较优;3)粮食安全保护区耕地质量较好,是保障粮食安全的核心,建议纳入基本农田范畴;粮食安全缓冲区虽然耕地质量优势相对减弱,但限制因素较为单一,也应纳入基本农田范畴;城镇发展规划区围绕城镇中心环状布局,建议作为城镇建设空间;土地综合整治区分布零散、集聚度不高,不适宜作为基本农田,建议作为基本农田的备选区。

    Abstract:

    An optimal delimitation of basic farmland needs to consider the food security and cultivated land quality in modern agriculture. Taking Zhecheng County, Henan Province of China as an example, this study aims to determine an optimal construction space of basic farmland from bottom to top, considering national food security and population development. The specific procedure was: 1) A combined gray-BP network model was adopted to predict the population and cultivated land demand in the study area from 1999 to 2025; 2) The population from 1999 to 2025 was used to calculate the food demand and security rate via a specific conversion. Six major ways of food consumption were selected to analyze the capacity for food security of the County; 3) An evaluation system of farmland quality was established to select the indicators from production conditions, location, landscape, and policy conditions. A quantitative analysis was performed on the indicators with geographic information technology and weighted index summation model for comprehensive quality scores of cultivated land; 4) A specific planning of construction land was proposed to fully integrate the quality evaluation of cultivated land into the current food security expectations and cultivated land demand. Consequently, the cultivated land was divided into the Food Security Protection Zone, Food Security Buffer Zone, Town Development Planning Zone, and Comprehensive Land Improvement Zone. The results indicated: 1) The County was in food-shortage from 1990 to 2005, but in food surplus from 2005 to 2019. Although food security was generally achieved, the risk of "hidden hunger" still existed from the perspective of food consumption structure; 2) The comprehensive quality score of cultivated land ranged from 29.57 to 92.87, with an average value of 59.53, indicating relatively good comprehensive quality. 3) The cultivated land quality in the food security protection zone was relatively high, where it was recommended to be included into the basic farmland. Meanwhile, the cultivated land quality in the Food Security Buffer Zone was relatively weak but with single limited factors, where it was advised to be also included into the basic farmland that required short-term land consolidation for the better quality of cultivated land. Given that the Town Development Planning Zone surrounded the town center in a ring layout and quality of cultivated land, it was suggested to be used for urban construction land. The direction of urban development was addressed to prevent the destruction of high-quality cultivated land. The comprehensive land improvement zone was taken as an alternative area for basic farmland, due to the scattered spatial distribution and weak land quality. It also needs to identify the obstacle factors for better land productivity using long-term comprehensive land remediation. These recommendations can make a great contribution to the protection of cultivated land, urban development, and comprehensive land consolidation. The integrated delimitation of basic farmland with food security can avoid the drawbacks of simplex delimitation in the dynamic evolution of basic farmland delimitation. The finding can provide a sound technical reference to the long-term stability of national food security and revitalization of cultivated land resources.

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郭贯成,韩小二.考虑粮食安全和耕地质量的县域基本农田空间布局优化[J].农业工程学报,2021,37(7):252-260. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2021.07.031

Guo Guancheng, Han Xiao'er. Spatial layout optimization of basic farmland considering food security and cultivated land quality at county scale[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2021,37(7):252-260. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2021.07.031

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-21
  • 最后修改日期:2021-02-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-05-11
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