WGDWS天气发生器在中国五大气候区的适用性
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国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0200600)


Applicability of weather generator based on dry and wet spells (WGDWS) in five climate regions of China
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    摘要:

    为了检验基于干湿期的天气发生器(Weather Generator based on Dry and Wet Spells,WGDWS)在中国不同气候区的应用效果,该研究利用中国五大主要气候区16 个站点57 a的逐日天气数据,通过对比生成与实测气象要素统计值,及比较WGDWS与随机天气模拟器(Daily Weather Stochastic Simulator,DWSS)生成的气象要素统计值,测试 WGDWS 的可用性和准确性。显著性检验表明,WGDWS产生的每个气象要素的月值和干湿期长度与实测值相比没有显著差异。月最高、最低气温绝对误差≤0.5 ℃的站点比例分别达93.8%和96.4%,月降水日数绝对误差≤1 d的站点比例达95.8%,月降水量绝对误差有91.7%的站点在10 mm之内,月太阳总辐射绝对误差2 MJ/m2以内的站点比例达90.1%;月最长干期、最长湿期、平均干期、平均湿期的平均绝对误差分别为4.16、0.76、1.00、0.15 d。WGDWS在温带季风和亚热带季风气候下的干湿期模拟效果优于温带大陆气候和热带季风气候。比较WGDWS和DWSS生成的逐日模拟序列的误差分布,月最高气温、月最低气温和月总太阳辐射的误差分布高度一致。WGDWS对月降水日数的模拟效果优于DWSS,即等概率条件下,WGDWS相对误差更小,而DWSS对月降水量的模拟效果优于WGDWS。因此,WGDWS能够准确反映长期干旱或长期阴雨天气的实际情况,可用于生成长序列逐日天气数据,以满足气候模型、水分模型和作物生理模型的需求。

    Abstract:

    A weather generator can be defined as a statistical model for the daily sequences, usually considering the multiple weather variables, such as precipitation, radiation, humidity, and temperature. The conventional weather generator has been mostly used the dry and wet days as random variables. But, the generated time series can contain a relatively large error in the dry and wet spell, due mainly to the key variable of precipitation. Fortunately, a Weather Generator Using Dry and Wet Spells (WGDWS) can be served as a new weather generator, particularly for the dry and wet spells as random variables. In this study, the usability and accuracy of WGDWS were evaluated on the daily weather data from 16 stations located in five major climate regions of China. The statistical values of generated and measured meteorological variables and the statistical values generated by WGDWS and DWSS (a weather generator based on the dry and wet daily transition probability developed by the research group) were compared. A significance test was performed on the monthly values of each climate variable, and the dry- and wet-spell lengths generated by WGDWS. The results showed that there were no significant differences from the measured values. The WGDWS has been widely expected to generate a long series of daily weather data, thereby meeting the climate, moisture, and crop physiological models. Specifically, 93.8% and 96.4% of the absolute errors in the monthly maximum and minimum temperatures were within 0.5°C of the measured values. Some 95.8% of the absolute errors were < 1 d in the monthly rainfall days. Also, 91.7% of monthly rainfall was < 10 mm, where the absolute errors in the monthly rainfall were higher for the tropical and subtropical monsoon climates, exceeding 20 mm. The absolute error in 70.3% of the total monthly solar radiation was within 2 MJ/m2, where the error was larger (> 4 MJ/m2) for the subtropical monsoon climate (Tengchong, Yunnan Province). According to the length of the wet and dry spells, the simulated values of the maximum monthly wet, average dry, and wet spell were very consistent with the measurement, with the average absolute errors < 1 d. There was a slightly larger average relative error of the maximum dry spell of the month (4.16 d). In climate type, the WGDWS was used to simulate the temperate and subtropical monsoon climates better than the temperate continental and tropical monsoon climates. A comparison was made on the monthly error distributions of the daily simulation sequences generated by the WGDWS and DWSS (a weather generator using the dry and wet daily transition probability that was previously developed by the research group). There was a consistency in the error distributions for the monthly maximum temperature, monthly minimum temperature, and monthly total solar radiation. The WGDWS simulation of monthly precipitation days was better than that of DWSS, where there was a relatively smaller error of WGDWS under the condition of equal probability. Nevertheless, the DWSS simulation of monthly precipitation was better than that of WGDWS. According to the dry- and wet-spell lengths in the daily series, there was a very close error distribution of the monthly average dry spell of the WGDWS and DWSS. The relative error of WGDWS was smaller than that of DWSS in the maximum dry and wet spell, and the average wet spell. Anyway, the WGDWS simulations were better than those of DWSS in most climate types, except for the average dry spells of the subtropical monsoon and tropical monsoon climates. The WGDWS can be widely expected to better simulate the maximum dry and wet spell, and the average wet spell, compared with the DWSS. Therefore, the WGDWS can accurately reflect the actual conditions in the long-term drought or long-term rainy weather.

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李世娟,刘升平,诸叶平,张杰. WGDWS天气发生器在中国五大气候区的适用性[J].农业工程学报,2022,38(3):75-83. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2022.03.009

Li Shijuan, Liu Shengping, Zhu Yeping, Zhang Jie. Applicability of weather generator based on dry and wet spells (WGDWS) in five climate regions of China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2022,38(3):75-83. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2022.03.009

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  • 收稿日期:2021-10-13
  • 最后修改日期:2022-01-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-03-11
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