黄河流域水资源、能源与粮食生产的时空匹配及阻尼效应研究
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西北农林科技大学

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Matching patterns and damping effect of grain production in the Yellow River Basin by water and energy resources
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1.Northwest A&2.F University;3.西北农林科技大学

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    摘要:

    水、能源与粮食是人类生活与发展进程中不可缺少的资源,水资源与能源的投入短缺及空间匹配不均衡会影响到粮食产量的增长。该研究运用洛伦兹曲线与基尼系数评估黄河流域上中下游各区域水资源、能源与粮食生产之间的匹配度,并基于柯布-道格拉斯函数引入粮食增长阻尼模型测算出黄河流域水资源与能源对于粮食生产的制约程度。结果表明:1)黄河流域水资源、能源对粮食的基尼指数呈现出先减小后增大情形,黄河下游区域的匹配度要比上中游区域更为合理,2019年,下游区域水资源、能源对粮食都呈现出高度匹配状态情形。2)黄河流域水资源对于粮食生产的阻尼系数波动较大,阻尼系数变化范围为0.005~0.032,且水资源对粮食增长阻尼作用呈现出6年一周期情形。能源对于粮食生产的阻尼作用呈现出稳步上升情形,且在2015后上增较快。在水资源与能源约束条件下,2019年黄河流域粮食产量增长要比上一年分别降低0.76%与5.28%。3)黄河流域水资源阻尼系数呈现出西部小东部大情形,能源阻尼效应呈中高约束状态集中在上游东部区域与下游区域,低约束状态集中于黄河中游区域。另外,黄河流域水资源与能源阻尼系数具有典型的空间集聚性特征,其中水资源阻尼效应H (High)-H (High)集聚区主要分布在黄河下游区域,能源阻尼效应L(Low)-L(Low)集聚区分布在中游北部区域。研究结果可为黄河流域粮食的稳定增长与资源有效配置提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Water, energy and food are indispensable resources in terms of human life and development, the shortage and matching dislocation of water resources and energy can hinder the growth rate of food production to a certain extent. In this paper, Lorentz curve and Gini coefficient are used to evaluate the matching degree between water-grain and energy-grain in the Yellow River Basin. Based on Cobb-Douglas function, the grain growth damping model is applied, and the restriction degree of water resources and energy on grain production in the Yellow River Basin is calculated. The results show that: 1) The Gini index of water resources and energy to grain in the Yellow River Basin has decreased first and then increased, and the matching degree of which in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is more reasonable than that of the upper and middle reaches. In 2019, the Gini index values of water resources to grain in the Yellow River Basin and the upper, middle and lower reaches were 0.365, 0.379, 0.336 and 0.122 respectively, while the Gini index values of energy to grain were 0.194, 0.218, 0.206 and 0.118 respectively, it indicated that the matching degree of water resources and energy to grain show high matching status in the lower reaches. The water resources and energy in the upper and middle reaches are generally matched with grain. 2) The damping coefficient of water resources to grain production fluctuates greatly in the Yellow River Basin, and the variation range of damping coefficient is 0.005~0.032. Besides, the damping effect of water resources on grain growth basically presents a 6-year cycle with a decrease-increase-decrease situation. While the damping effect of energy on grain shows a steady increase situation, and the energy damping coefficient increased rapidly after 2015. Under the constraints of water resources and energy in 2019, the annual grain output growth in the Yellow River Basin reduced by 0.76% and 5.28% respectively compared with the previous year. 3) The damping effect of water resources and energy has a certain degree of agglomeration, the damping coefficient of water resources in the Yellow River Basin presents the situation of small in the West and large in the East. The energy damping effect presents a medium and high constraint state, which is concentrated in the eastern and lower reaches of the upper reaches, and the low constraint state is concentrated in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. In addition, the damping coefficient of water resources and energy in the Yellow River Basin has typical spatial agglomeration characteristics. The H(High)-H(High) agglomeration area of water resources damping effect is mainly distributed in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, the L(Low)-L(Low) agglomeration area of energy damping effect is distributed in the northern part of the middle reaches. It is hoped that this study can have a certain reference basis for the stable growth of grain and the effective allocation of resources in the Yellow River Basin.

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陈帅,姚顺波.黄河流域水资源、能源与粮食生产的时空匹配及阻尼效应研究[J].农业工程学报,,(). Chen Shuai, Yao Shunbo. Matching patterns and damping effect of grain production in the Yellow River Basin by water and energy resources[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),,().

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  • 收稿日期:2022-06-08
  • 最后修改日期:2022-11-03
  • 录用日期:2022-11-16
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