基于Meta分析研究气候暖化对中国小麦籽粒蛋白质含量影响
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1.石河子大学水利建筑工程学院;2.中国气象局公共气象服务中心;3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

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S512.1

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Effect of climate warming on protein content of wheat grains in China based on Meta-analysis
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1.College of Water Conservancy &2.Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University;3.CMA Public Meteorological Service Centre;4.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    气候变化相关的环境因素可能会影响谷物营养质量。气候变化引起的CO2浓度升高、温度升高、降水量变化对作物营养质量的影响,特别是在中国范围内对谷物蛋白质含量的影响尚未量化。为此,本研究对中国各试验站点的现有文献数据进行Meta分析,并利用中国小麦籽粒蛋白质含量数据结合气象数据评估关键气候因素对中国主要小麦种植区小麦籽粒蛋白质含量的影响。Meta分析结果表明,增温显著提升了小麦籽粒蛋白质含量(p<0.05),CO2浓度上升显著降低了小麦籽粒蛋白质含量,降水对小麦籽粒蛋白质含量影响较为复杂。温度升高可以部分抵消由于CO2升高和降水对小麦籽粒蛋白质产生的负面影响。2010-2018年各省份小麦生育期内平均气温呈升高趋势,在所有调查的研究区内,小麦总生育期平均温度约上升了1.27 ℃,不同小麦种植区内生育期平均气温变化趋势存在差异。中国不同小麦产区籽粒蛋白质含量对生育期平均温度的以正向响应为主,并且生殖生长阶段的平均温度在小麦籽粒蛋白质含量变率中起主导作用。研究结果可为气候变化对小麦籽粒蛋白质含量的影响提供科学依据,有助于区域决策,制定适当的气候变化适应战略,以促进中国的可持续农业和营养安全。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Environmental factors related to climate change may affect the nutritional quality of cereals. The effects of the increase of CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation caused by climate change on the nutritional quality of crops, especially on the protein content of grains in China, have not been quantified. Therefore, this study made a meta-analysis of the existing literature data of various experimental sites in China, and used the protein content data of wheat grains in China combined with meteorological data to evaluate the influence of key growth temperature on the protein content of wheat grains in the main wheat growing areas in China, by using a mixed linear model, fixed regression and random residual analysis, a linear mixed model with random intercept and slope was used in each region to calculate the average sensitivity of grain protein content at different stages of temperature (wheat total growth period temperature, vegetative growth period mean temperature, reproductive growth period mean temperature). The results of meta-analysis showed that the protein content in wheat grain was significantly increased by warming (P < 0.05), and the protein content in wheat grain was significantly decreased by increasing CO2 concentration. The effect of precipitation on protein content in wheat grain was complicated. Temperature increase can partially offset the negative effects of CO2 increase and precipitation on wheat grain protein. From 2010 to 2018, the average temperature in the growth period of wheat in all provinces showed an upward trend. In all the investigated research areas, the average temperature in the total growth period of wheat increased by about 1.27℃, and the change trend of the average temperature in different wheat growing areas was different. The grain protein content in different wheat producing areas in China mainly responds positively to the average temperature in the growth period, and the average temperature in the reproductive growth stage plays a leading role in the variability of protein content in wheat grains. Based on the results of this study, suggestions for adapting to climate change can be put forward for different regions in China. In Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui areas, the protein content in grains is positively sensitive to temperature and significant (P < 0.05), which can develop into a wheat producing area with high protein content in grains under climate change. In Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hubei and Xinjiang, the climate has a positive sensitive effect on the protein content of crops, but it is not significant (P > 0.05). In these areas, appropriate crop management strategies can be formulated according to local conditions to adapt to environmental warming. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, due to the low temperature and lack of sunshine during wheat filling, protein content has always been low, which is not suitable for planting strong gluten wheat varieties, but weak gluten varieties with low protein content can be planted. In Sichuan Basin, wheat with low protein content can be developed and planted for a long time because of the low explanation of climate factors by grain protein content. The research results can provide scientific basis for the influence of climate change on protein content in wheat grains, and contribute to regional decision-making, and formulate appropriate adaptation strategies for climate warming, so as to promote sustainable agriculture and nutritional security in China.

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孔祥飞,李超,杨广,侯冠群,柳为,徐新港,欧阳竹,侯瑞星.基于Meta分析研究气候暖化对中国小麦籽粒蛋白质含量影响[J].农业工程学报,,(). kongxiangfei, lichao, yangguang, houguanqun, liuwei, Xuxingang, ouyangzhu, houruixing. Effect of climate warming on protein content of wheat grains in China based on Meta-analysis[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),,().

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-12
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-18
  • 录用日期:2023-06-14
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