基于CMIP6的珠江流域未来干旱时空变化
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国家自然科学基金资助项目 (51879288);广东省水利科技创新项目(2020-27)


Spatiotemporal variation of future droughts in the Pearl River Basin using CMIP6
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    摘要:

    干旱是一种严重且长期持续性的自然灾害,对人们的生产和生活具有显著影响。目前的大部分干旱研究将干旱的时间和空间特征进行单独分析,往往忽略了干旱的时空耦合关系。同时,南方湿润区的干旱灾害近年呈现上升趋势,探究气候变化背景下的干旱演变规律成为亟需解决的问题。因此,该研究首先利用CMIP6计算了珠江流域2015-2100年的标准化降水指数 (Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI),应用游程理论提取干旱特征,并利用旋转经验正交函数(Rotational Empirical Orthogonal Functions,REOF)对珠江流域干湿区进行划分,再分别利用Sen's斜率、Hurst指数方法和完备总体经验模态分解 (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise,CEEMDAN)方法对气象干旱指数和干旱特征进行时空耦合特征分析。结果表明:1)根据SPI未来变化趋势,珠江流域未来将呈现更为湿润的状态,不同干湿分区的变化具有一致性且沿海分区的湿润状态更为明显。2)分析不同气候模式下CEEMDAN结果,辐射强迫的增加导致未来珠江流域干旱更为严重,未来珠江流域车旱历时处千0.5~1.8个月,干旱频率处于5.6%~13.9%之间。3)结合干旱特征的CEEMDAN分析结果,珠江流域干旱历时和干旱频率以1.04~1.31 a为主要周期,沿海分区的短周期特征更显著。该研究通过对干旱指数和干旱特征的时空耦合分析,探寻干旱的未来发展规律,为干旱研究提供了一个新的时空耦合分析视角,对干旱监测、预测预报和管理具有重要的现实意义。

    Abstract:

    Drought has been one of the most serious and long-term natural disasters, leading to a significant impact on production and life. A separation of stripping time or space can be usually adopted to simplify the drought assessment at present. But the spatiotemporal continuous characteristics of drought cannot be fully considered during the assessment, because the separate analysis is limited to time and space. At the same time, there is an upward trend of drought in the humid region of South China in recent years. Therefore, it is highly urgent to explore the evolution of drought under the background of climate change. This study aims to determine the spatiotemporal variation of future droughts in the Pearl River flow region of South China. A coupled model comparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) data was firstly selected in the BCC-CSM2-MR precipitation dataset under the rliplfl experimental mode. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was then calculated to analyze the overall drought trend under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Secondly, the Sen's slope was used to qualitatively analyze the future drought trend in the study area. The Hurst index was also used to comprehensively describe the persistence of the future drought trend. Thirdly, a rotating empirical orthogonal function (REOF) was utilized to spatially classify the study area, according to the dry and wet characteristics. The spatial characteristics of the future drought index were then obtained to compare the different spatial modes under different climate scenarios. Finally, the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) was combined to decompose the drought duration and frequency of different SPI spatial modal divisions. As such, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics were achieved in the future drought. The results showed that: 1) The BCC-CSM2-MR precipitation dataset was suitable for the SPI calculation under the CMIP6 and observation data. 2) Five SPI divisions were divided to decompose by REOF. The divisions depended mainly on the radiative forcing, but there was an almost unchanged area of each division. 3) There was a much more humid state of divisions in the coastal space, while the consistent changes of different dry and wet divisions, according to the future trend of SPI. 4) There were shorter periods of drought duration and frequency after CEEMDAN analysis, indicating the more significant characteristics in the short period of coastal, spatial and modal zoning. 5) There was a much more serious drought with the increase of radiative forcing under different climate models using the CEEMDAN analysis. Specifically, the severe drought was last for about 0.5-1.8 months in the future, while the drought frequency was between 5.6% and 13.9%. Consequently, this finding can provide a new perspective of spatiotemporal coupling analysis for drought research, particularly for drought monitoring, prediction and management.

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王天,涂新军,周宗林,赖荣标,谢星.基于CMIP6的珠江流域未来干旱时空变化[J].农业工程学报,2022,38(11):81-90. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2022.11.009

Wang Tian, Tu Xinjun, Zhou Zonglin, Lai Rongbiao, Xie Xing. Spatiotemporal variation of future droughts in the Pearl River Basin using CMIP6[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2022,38(11):81-90. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2022.11.009

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  • 收稿日期:2022-01-05
  • 最后修改日期:2022-05-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-08-03
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