标准化降水实际蒸散指标的构建及其适用性分析
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科技部基础调查专项(2019FY00205);国家自然科学基金项目(52079055,52011530128,51879110)


Construction and applicability analysis of the standardized precipitation actual evapotranspiration index
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    摘要:

    为高效准确地开展区域干旱监测,该研究基于最大熵增原理构建了一种基于实际蒸散发的干旱监测指标(标准化降水实际蒸散指数,Standardized Precipitation Actual Evapotranspiration Index,SPAEI),以河南、湖北、湖南为研究对象对SPAEI进行了适用性验证,并采用该指标对华中地区进行了干旱变化趋势和周期性分析。研究结果表明:1)由最大熵增蒸散模型计算所得的SPAEI指数对华中地区的干旱评估具有较好的适用性;其中,SPAEI相比于SPEI-Th与SPEI-PM(分别由Thornthwaite和Penman-Monteith方法获得)更符合历史旱灾中的实际干旱面积(SPAEI3,即3个月时间尺度SPAEI)与受灾面积相关系数为0.56~0.65)、植被健康状态等特征,也具有更高的历史旱灾识别率。2)对华中地区干旱指标的趋势分析表明,鄂西南恩施地区、湘南衡阳郴州地区的春/冬季、鄂西北和湘西邵阳地区的夏季、鄂西北部分地区的冬季呈现干旱加重的趋势。3)华中地区存在16个月左右的干旱主周期、6~8个月的短周期以及6 a左右的长周期。研究提出的SPAEI确定方法预计可为区域干旱监测提供参考,对农业、气象等方面的监测、预警具有广泛应用潜力。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Understanding the drought process and accurately monitoring the drought situation are significant for the people’s livelihood and facilitating sustainable social-economic development in China. Due to the vast territory of the whole country and the widespread impacts of drought, there is a lack of a proper drought index for drought monitoring in China. Based on the calculation of actual evapotranspiration and the choice of most suitable distribution types, this study proposed a standardized Precipitation Actual Evapotranspiration Index (SPAEI) to monitor the drought in central China, using methods such as the Maximum Entropy Production theory. Firstly, we introduced the definition of SPAEI. Then the actual evapotranspiration datasets calculated by the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) model were validated, followed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test used to determine the most suitable probability distribution type of fitting water deficit. Also, the SPEI values were calculated by the Thornthwaite method and Penman-Monteith method (referred to as the SPEI-Th and SPEI-PM) with different time scales (monthly, seasonal, semiannual, and yearly) and compared with the SPAEI values calculated by the MEP model. Further, to assess the applicability of SPAEI in central China and the feasibility of the actual evapotranspiration in the field of drought monitoring, we established comprehensive historical data sets with provincial drought statistics data sets, Vegetation Health Index (VHI), and historical drought records. These data sets were used to validate these indexes by correlation analysis and extreme historical drought events. Finally, SPAEI based on the Mann-Kendall trend test and wavelet analysis was used to analyze drought’s changing trend and periodicity in central China. The results showed that: 1) In central China, every grid and month based on log-logistic distribution under three parameters passed the K-S test (P<0.05), which indicated log-logistic under three parameters distribution was the suitable distribution function of fitting water deficit. 2) There was a significant correlation between SPEI-Th, SPEI-PM, and SPAEI of all time scales (P<0.01), and a strong linear correlation between the SPEI and SPAEI values (R2=0.92-0.97). The correlation coefficient between similar indexes decreased with the increase of time scale. The correlation decreased slightly. The different drought indexes of varying time scales had the same judgment on humidity, but the judgment on drought was relatively different. 3) The comparative analysis of various indexes using relevant drought data showed that the correlation coefficient between SPAEI and VHI were higher than other types of drought indexes among the drought indexes of the same time scale, and SPAEI of seasonal time scale. The correlation between SPAEI of seasonal time scale and drought-affected areas in each province was significant (r=0.56-0.65). Compared with the SPEI values, the SPAEI had better performance to indicate vegetation drought. SPAEI of seasonal time scale had more advantages than other indexes in predicting the actual drought area, vegetation drought performance, and drought identification. 4) The application analysis of seasonal time scale SPAEI in central China showed that the drought in southwest Hubei, northwest Hubei, western Hunan, and southern Hunan had an aggravating trend. The main drought period in central China was about 16 months; the short period was between 6 and 8 months and the long period was about six years. It is indicated in statistics data research that actual evapotranspiration had strong feasibility in the field of drought assessment in China. Our study provided a new drought index for drought monitoring, conducive to the continuous monitoring of drought and water resources management in certain regions. Also, SPAEI could provide a reference for drought monitoring and drought degree quantification in Central China and contribute to the world's understanding of drought monitoring.

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孙勋来,陈家宁,孙怀卫,阳 勇,宋 亮,邹朝望,廖卫红,陈皓锐.标准化降水实际蒸散指标的构建及其适用性分析[J].农业工程学报,2022,38(Z):142-151. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2022. z.016

Sun Xunlai, Chen Jianing, Sun Huaiwei, Yang Yong, Song liang, Zou Chaowang, Liao Weihong, Chen Haorui. Construction and applicability analysis of the standardized precipitation actual evapotranspiration index[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2022,38(Z):142-151. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2022. z.016

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  • 收稿日期:2021-11-25
  • 最后修改日期:2022-10-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-02-07
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