中巴经济走廊极端降水事件分析
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科技部基础调查专项(2019FY00205);国家自然科学基金项目(52079055、52011530128和51879110)


Analysis of extreme precipitation events along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
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    摘要:

    在作为中国“一带一路”倡议的先试区和重点区的中巴经济走廊,极端降水事件是导致洪涝灾害频发的主要原因,因此有必要开展极端降水事件研究,促进其有效风险管理,进而推动中国“一带一路”战略的顺利开展。该研究利用中巴经济走廊0.25°×0.25°的逐日降水数据集从强度、面积、持续时间3个方面进行极端降水事件的识别,通过强度-面积-持续时间(Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD)包络线分析三维特征的相关关系,分析中巴经济走廊多年以来极端降水的变化趋势。结果表明:1)1961—2013年间,中巴经济走廊年降水量呈现波动上升趋势;2)根据极端降水三维特征利用 IAD 聚类模型识别历史时期极端降水事件,发现2—4 月、7—8 月的旱雨季是极端降水事件的高发期,一年内极端降水事件频次出现明显的双峰值现象。同时极端降水事件逐年呈现波动增加趋势,但是增加趋势不显著;3)持续 1 d 极端降水事件单次影响面积呈现明显的上升趋势,其余事件处在波动状态,趋势不明显,极端事件影响的范围随时间推移在进一步扩大;4)随着时间的推移,持续 1 d 极端降水事件相对强度有明显的增加趋势,持续 3 d 事件也在增加但不明显,持续 5 d 和7 d 事件无显著趋势,呈波动变化,总体上极端降水事件强度增加。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the pilot and key area of China’s “Belt and Road” initiative. In this area, extreme precipitation events are the main cause of frequent floods. It is necessary to research extreme precipitation events to promote effective risk management and the smooth implementation of China’s “Belt and Road” strategy. In this study, the daily precipitation data set of 0.25°×0.25° of CPEC was used to identify extreme precipitation events from three aspects, such as intensity, area, and duration. The correlations between the three-dimensional characteristics of the IAD envelope of extreme precipitation events were analyzed, and the changing trend of extreme precipitation in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor over years was quantified. The results showed that: 1) Differences in the duration of extreme precipitation were significant among different regions, indicating that the extreme degree of precipitation in different regions is different. 2) From 1961 to 2013, the annual average temperature in the study area increased at the rate of 0.415°C/10a, and the annual precipitation in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor showed a fluctuating upward trend; 3) The frequency of extreme precipitation events had obvious double peaks within a year. The dry and rainy seasons from February to April and July to August were the periods of extreme precipitation with high incidence events, accounting for 68.8% of the whole year. The number of extreme precipitation events fluctuated and increased year by year, but the increasing trend was not significant; 4) The single impact area of extreme precipitation events lasting for 1 d showed an obvious upward trend, the other events were in a fluctuating state, while the trend was not obvious, and the impact range of extreme events was further expanding with time; 5) At the same time, the relative intensity of extreme precipitation events lasting for 1 d had an obvious increasing trend, and the relative intensity of extreme precipitation events lasting for 3d also increased, but not obviously. The relative intensity of events lasting for 5 and 7 d had no significant trend and fluctuates. On the whole, the intensity of extreme precipitation events increased. 6) In contrast, the impact area of extreme precipitation events lasting for 1 d was the largest, while the average impact area was about 1.5 times that of other time scales, and the event intensity was the smallest. The correlation coefficient between extreme precipitation event intensity and impact area was 0.47 for 1 d, 0.58 for 3 d, 0.49 for 5 d, and 0.47 for 7 d. It indicates that the intensity area relationship of extreme precipitation events in the case of continuous 3 d could better reflect the relationship characteristics of extreme events, which was more representative. The continuous 3 d rainfall could be used as an important index for risk assessment of extreme precipitation events. This paper is helpful in understanding the temporal and spatial distribution laws of extreme precipitation events in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in different durations, plays a guiding role in assessing natural disasters caused by extreme precipitation events, and provides valuable information on the prediction of precipitation in the Indus River basin.

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杜世雄,吴瑞英,孙怀卫,严冬,薛杰,廖卫红,陈皓锐.中巴经济走廊极端降水事件分析[J].农业工程学报,2022,38(Z):152-160. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2022. z.017

Du Shixiong, Wu Ruiying, Sun Huaiwei, Yan Dong, Xue Jie, Liao Weihong, Chen Haorui. Analysis of extreme precipitation events along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2022,38(Z):152-160. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2022. z.017

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  • 收稿日期:2021-11-17
  • 最后修改日期:2022-06-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-02-07
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