基于天气预报的日光温室夜间逐时气温预测模型构建
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现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金项目(CARS-23-D02)


Construction and validation of hourly air temperature prediction model in solar greenhouse at night
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    摘要:

    为得到一种可行的日光温室夜间逐时气温预测方法,从而提高主动集放热系统的适应力,该研究尝试从中国天气网发布的天气预报中获取试验地点72 h天气状况、室外气温等气象信息,同时将爬取筛选的天气状况简分为晴天、多云天以及阴天三类,并基于多元线性回归、支持向量机回归和随机森林回归方法,选取2020年11月-2021年2月中晴天、多云天和阴天各25 d的数据作为训练集,选取训练集外的三种天气各10 d的数据作为测试集,分别构建了三种天气状况下温室内夜间逐时气温预测模型。该研究使用均方误差(MSE)和决定系数(R2)对各类模型预测精度进行评价:晴天和多云天时,随机森林回归模型预测精度最高,MSE、R2分别达到了0.37、0.94和0.05、0.98,而阴天时支持向量机回归模型预测精度最高,MSE、R2分别达到了0.40、0.87;根据不同的天气状况选用精度最高的回归模型进行气温预测,经验证预测气温和实测气温的变化曲线拟合度较高,单因素方差分析显示两者间无显著差异(P>0.05),在晴天、多云天和阴天MSE分别为0.19、0.19和0.15,R2分别达到了0.98、0.95和0.90,平均绝对误差依次为0.1、0.3和0.3℃。因此,该研究所构建的基于天气预报的日光温室夜间逐时气温预测模型预测精度较高,可以为主动集放热系统放热策略的制定提供指导。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: In order to obtain a feasible hourly temperature prediction method at night for solar greenhouses and improve the adaptability of the active heat collection and release system, this research attempted to obtain 72 h meteorological information of the test area from the weather forecast published by China Weather Net (It mainly included weather conditions, outdoor air temperature, wind speed, outdoor relative humidity, cloud fraction, visibility, and rainfall probability). The weather conditions that were crawled and screened were simplified into three categories: sunny, cloudy, and overcast. As a black box model, the statistical model did not need to accurately reflect the real mechanism. Usually, the measured data was used to obtain the functional relationship between variables by mathematical statistics, which greatly reduced the difficulty of modeling. Based on multiple linear regression, vector machine regression and random forest regression methods that require less modeling data, the hourly temperature prediction models for indoor nighttime were constructed according to the three conditions of sunny, cloudy and overcast. Mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of various models. The results showed that the three regression models had different accuracies under different weather conditions. On sunny and cloudy days, the random forest regression model had the highest accuracy, with MSE and R2 being 0.37, 0.94 and 0.05, 0.98, respectively. On cloudy days, the MSE and R2 of the support vector machine regression model were 0.40 and 0.87, respectively, which were better than the remaining two models. Therefore, the random forest regression model can be selected to predict the hourly temperature of greenhouses at night on sunny and cloudy days, and the vector machine regression model can be used on overcast days. The optimal model was selected to predict the hourly indoor air temperature at night, and compare the predicted value with the measured value. The verification results showed that the curves of predicted temperature and measured temperature were well-fitted, and one-way ANOVA showed no significant difference between them (P>0.05). On sunny, cloudy, and overcast days, the MSE was 0.19, 0.19, and 0.15, and the R2 was 0.98, 0.95, and 0.90, respectively. The mean absolute errors between the measured and predicted values of hourly air temperature at night were 0.1, 0.3, and 0.3 ℃, respectively. However, the large error between the predicted value and measured value mainly occurred at 18:00, because the external blanket was closed in advance, which reduced the heat loss of the solar greenhouse. The actual indoor temperature was still higher. Therefore, the model constructed in this paper had high prediction accuracy and would be used in production practice. The collected heat can be reasonably distributed for multiple consecutive nights according to the forecast and prediction results, so as to improve the adaptability of the active heat collection and release system.

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宗成骥,王建玉,宋卫堂,耿若,刘平建,徐丹.基于天气预报的日光温室夜间逐时气温预测模型构建[J].农业工程学报,2022,38(Z):218-225. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2022. z.025

Zong Chengji, Wang Jianyu, Song Weitang, Geng Ruo, Liu Pingjian, Xu Dan. Construction and validation of hourly air temperature prediction model in solar greenhouse at night[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2022,38(Z):218-225. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.2022. z.025

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  • 收稿日期:2022-05-27
  • 最后修改日期:2022-10-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-02-07
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