In order to understand the dangerous characteristics of changes in rainfall erosivity in China and 10 river basins, and to provide scientific references for the prevention and control of soil erosion, rainfall erosivity are estimated in text of homogenized daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2023 which provide reliable basis for climate change research. Combining with the three characteristics values of erosive rainfall, such as total erosive rainfall, erosive rainy days and mean erosive ranfall intensity, the trend of annual rainfall erosivity changes and causes are analysed by the linner regression and Spearman’s rank partial correlation analysis. The extreme changes are discussed from trend of annual maximum daily rainfall erosivity and difference of event rainfall erosivity under 10-year return period during the two periods 1961-2023 and 1961-1990. The recurrence period is statistically fitted and tested for goodness of fit using the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEV) function and Kolmogorov-Smirnov method. Then, dangerous situations of changes in rainfall erosivity are comprehensively analysed considering overall trends and extreme variations in China. At last, the projection of annual rainfall erosivity in future is estimated based on the Hurst index by rescaled range analysis P/S method and suggestions for soil erosion prevention and control in different key erosion regions are given. The results show that: 1) From 1961 to 2023, the annual rainfall erosivity of China, Southeast river basin and Northwest river basin showed significant increasing trends. But that of Southwest river basin showed a significant decreasing trend. The increasing trends in most other river basins are not obvious; 2) The annual erosive rainfall, rainy days and mean erosive rainfall intensity of China and of most river basins also show positive rate of change. Particularly, the mean erosive rainfall intensity of China and Yellow river basin, Yangtze river basin, southeast river basin, Pearl river basin, and northwest river basin have significant increasing trends. The causes of the changing trends in annual rainfall erosivity of 10 river basins are not completely the same. For most river basins, the change of annual mean erosive rainfall intensity and/or rainfall played dominant role for the trend of annual rainfall erosivity. 3) The maximum daily rainfall erosivity in most parts of China is showing an positive rate of change. The number of stations with the extreme maximum historical value has been increasing over time, peaking in the 2010s and surpassing that of the 1990s.The ratio of stations with increasing event rainfall erosivity under 10-year return period between the two periods 1961-2023 and 1961-1990 to total were 64.3%; 4) Increasing changes in either the total amount or the extreme of rainfall erosivity will do harm to soil and water conservation. Over the past 60 years, the changes in rainfall erosivity in most parts of the country is dangerous, with a proportion of 80% of total stations. Among them, the type with increase in both the total and extreme rainfall erosivity is the most prominent and widespread in all river basins; 5) It is estimated that the projection of annual rainfall erosivity in most stations in most 10 river basins will continue the trends during 1961-2023 and show a continuous increasing trend in future except Southwest river basin with coutinous decreasing trend. The current and future climate conditions are not optimistic for soil erosion control in China. It is necessary to develop long-term plans and take effective measures tailored to local conditions based on the total amount and extreme changes of rainfall erosivity.