长江中游粮食主产区耕地碳源汇时空演化特征及驱动因素分析
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F301.2

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国家自然科学基金项目(42261049),国家社会科学基金(20BJY144),江西省自然科学基金项目(20232BAB203061),江西财经大学第十八届学生科研课题(20231014220028732)


Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of carbon sources and sinks on cultivated land in the main grain producing areas in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River
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    摘要:

    辨识粮食主产区耕地碳源汇平衡特征及驱动因素,对推动耕地低碳生产跃迁和稳固粮食安全至关重要。该研究基于碳源—碳汇双重视角测度2005—2021年长江中游粮食主产区耕地利用净碳汇量,运用空间自相关、核密度估计和地理探测器等方法探究其时空演化特征及驱动因素,并提出固碳减排策略。结果表明:1)长江中游粮食主产区耕地净碳汇总量从2005年2674.09万t增加至2021年3757.58万t,年均增幅2.22%,碳汇功能愈发凸显,空间上各地市耕地净碳汇呈“低值区点状分散、高值区片状集聚”的差异分布态势;2)长江中游粮食主产区耕地净碳汇空间相关性存在“正集聚—负集聚—正聚集”交替变化规律,整体和省域耕地净碳汇均存在扩散现象且区域差异有所增强;3)长江中游粮食主产区耕地净碳汇时空格局演化受耕地利用和农业经济因素影响显著,其中,耕地规模和农业机械化水平是关键主导因素且影响力区域异质性明显;4)应推动耕地规模化与机械化经营、科学量化物资投入及重视耕地生产主体素质培养,带动长江中游粮食主产区耕地利用固碳减排。研究结果可为科学测度耕地碳源汇、完善耕地碳循环机制提供决策参考。

    Abstract:

    Cultivated land has been the main source of carbon emissions during agricultural production. Especially, the function of carbon absorption by crops also has posed the dual impacts of carbon source or sink in major grain-producing areas. Therefore, the cultivated land can play an important role in the low-carbon transformation of agriculture. It is crucial to recognize the balance and driving factors of carbon sources and sinks in the cultivated land, in order to promote low-carbon production and food security. In this study, the internal and external carbon cycle of cultivated land was considered to measure the net carbon sink of cultivated land in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2005 to 2021. A theoretical framework was proposed, according to the dual perspective of carbon sources and sinks. Spatial autocorrelation and kernel density estimation were applied to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution in different regions. Then, GeoDetector was applied to analyze the influence of the driving factors on carbon sequestration and emission reduction. The results show that: 1) The total net carbon sink of cultivated land increased from 26.7409 million tons in 2005 to 37.5758 million tons in 2021, with an average annual increase of 2.22%. There was a much more prominent function of the carbon sink. The net carbon sink of cultivated land was less than 1.5 million tons in most of the cities. In terms of spatial pattern, there was a significant variation in the net carbon sink of cultivated land in different cities, indicating "low-value point-like dispersion, high-value piece-like agglomeration". (2) The spatial correlation of net carbon sinks in the cultivated land was alternated into the "positive-negative-positive agglomeration". There was a diffusion pattern in the net carbon sinks of cultivated land in each province and the region as a whole. The regional differences were enhanced to deteriorate the spatial non-equilibrium. (3) The spatial and temporal pattern of the net carbon sink in the cultivated land was dominated by the cultivated land use and agricultural economic factors. Among them, the key dominant factors were the size of cultivated land and the level of agricultural mechanization. The influence of the driving factors shared the outstanding regional heterogeneity. A theoretical basis can be offered to promote the core and key areas of carbon sequestration and emission reduction in the cultivated land. (4) Some recommendations were proposed to promote the size and mechanization of cultivated land, the scientific quantification of material inputs, as well as the quality cultivation of producers, in order to realize carbon sequestration and emission reduction. The carbon cycle can also be determined to measure the carbon sources and sinks in the cultivated land, in order to improve the economic and ecological benefits of cultivated land use. The findings can provide decision-making references for pollution reduction, carbon sequestration, and sink enhancement in the cultivated land.

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吕添贵,邱蓉,李泽英,付舒斐,赵巧.长江中游粮食主产区耕地碳源汇时空演化特征及驱动因素分析[J].农业工程学报,2024,40(18):251-261. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.202403144

LYU Tiangui, QIU Rong, LI Zeying, FU Shufei, ZHAO Qiao. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of carbon sources and sinks on cultivated land in the main grain producing areas in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE),2024,40(18):251-261. DOI:10.11975/j. issn.1002-6819.202403144

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-21
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-09-11
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